Uncertainty regarding US trade and tariff policy is likely to continue for some time, which will be unsettling for markets.
Expect a period of back-and-forth negotiations which may bring further positive surprises for markets.
Other developments may also bring relief for global equity markets, including:
- Central banks continuing to reduce interest rates, particularly in Europe, Australia, and NZ
- The prospect of political pushback in the US resulting in a toning down of trade policy
- A pivot by the Trump administration to promote the more positive elements of their policy agenda such as tax cuts and deregulation.
A key concern is further entrenchment of tariff positions between US and China. The ever-evolving approach to tariff policy remains somewhat unpredictable.
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